0x6e12e47a09c33091b5cd3fbe88239441579c0cc2
0x6e12e47a09c33091b5cd3fbe88239441579c0cc2
Wallet digest
Activity score
76/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
11
Open notional
$21.11
Total PnL
$-0.66
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- NO
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?
3 shares @ 58.0¢·now 97.3¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$2.97
$1.20
- NO
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
3 shares @ 76.0¢·now 96.0¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$2.52
$0.52
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
3 shares @ 79.0¢·now 96.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$2.44
$0.44
- NO
Will the Bank of Korea hold at the August 2026 meeting?
8 shares @ 26.0¢·now 29.0¢·exp Aug 26, 2026$2.23
$0.23
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?
3 shares @ 79.0¢·now 84.5¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$2.14
$0.14
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?
3 shares @ 80.0¢·now 79.5¢·exp Aug 25, 2026$1.99
$-0.01
- NO
Will Core PCE MoM be 0.3% in July?
3 shares @ 70.0¢·now 69.0¢·exp Aug 26, 2026$1.97
$-0.03
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
6 shares @ 35.0¢·now 29.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$1.69
$-0.31
- YES
Will fewer than 180 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 10-August 16?
4 shares @ 50.0¢·now 30.5¢·exp Aug 16, 2026$1.22
$-0.78
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
3 shares @ 77.0¢·now 41.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$1.08
$-0.92
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on August 17?$2.06Aug 17, 02:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?$2.02Aug 16, 17:14 UTC
- REDEEMUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?$6.06Aug 16, 08:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?$2.02Aug 16, 07:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?$2.06Aug 15, 23:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?$0.00Aug 15, 18:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?$2.02Aug 15, 12:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Zohran" or "Mamdani" during remarks in New York?$3.64Aug 15, 05:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?$2.02Aug 15, 04:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Transgender" during remarks in New York?$2.50Aug 14, 23:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?$9.09Aug 14, 19:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?$2.07Aug 14, 07:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$2.00Aug 13, 23:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 180 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 10-August 16?$2.00Aug 13, 15:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%?$0.00Aug 13, 08:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Zohran" or "Mamdani" during remarks in New York?$2.04Aug 13, 07:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Core PCE MoM be 0.3% in July?$2.03Aug 12, 23:29 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?$0.00Aug 12, 20:38 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$3.57Aug 12, 20:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill annual inflation be 3.4% in July?$0.00Aug 12, 15:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
27 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 27
- Avg trade size
- $2.02
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 4, 01:41 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 17, 02:06 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.