Fumbling-Obligation
0x6e725a87d36253360b4de885d4295216c63a537c
Wallet digest
Activity score
94/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
7
Open notional
$575.53
Total PnL
$52.64
Realised
$171.09
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by March 31?
500 shares @ 96.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$500.00
$17.50
- YES
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15?
75 shares @ 13.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$74.92
$65.18
- YES
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
10 shares @ 17.0¢·now 6.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.61
$-1.09
- YES
US recession in 2025?
220 shares @ 52.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-115.80
- YES
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?
180 shares @ 5.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-10.44
- YES
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31?
150 shares @ 36.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2025$0.00
$-54.00
- NO
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?
30 shares @ 66.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-19.80
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15?$10.00Apr 15, 20:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?$10.44Feb 20, 21:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?$16.50Feb 20, 21:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?$3.30Feb 20, 21:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?$1.70Jan 15, 23:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by March 31?$482.50Jan 11, 13:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Germany U21 beat England U21 in regular time?$0.00Jul 1, 06:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup?$0.00Jul 1, 06:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Borussia Dortmund win Group F at the FIFA Club World Cup?$28.99Jul 1, 06:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Al-Hilal win the FIFA Club World Cup?$6.73Jul 1, 06:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Germany U21 beat England U21 in regular time?$1.85Jun 28, 13:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31?$54.00Jun 23, 17:12 UTC
- TRADESELLKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?$5.91Jun 21, 11:21 UTC
- REDEEMBenfica vs. Auckland City: 7+ Goals Scored?$9.26Jun 21, 11:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill Inter Miami vs. FC Porto end in a draw?$18.16Jun 21, 11:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Inter Miami vs. FC Porto end in a draw?$4.20Jun 19, 20:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBenfica vs. Auckland City: 7+ Goals Scored?$5.00Jun 19, 20:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Inter Miami vs. FC Porto end in a draw?$10.00Jun 19, 18:38 UTC
- REDEEMManchester City vs. Wydad AC: 4+ Goals Scored?$0.00Jun 19, 12:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill Real Madrid beat Al Hilal?$0.00Jun 19, 12:47 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $89.46
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 25, 21:18 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 15, 20:33 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.