Hopeful-Carport
0x6e81207931ae12ec345b4613e0fd688829dfc428
Wallet digest
Activity score
51/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
9
Open notional
$12.49
Total PnL
$-948.24
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
238 shares @ 17.0¢·now 5.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.49
$-27.97
- YES
Will another candidate win the most votes in the first round of the Polish Presidential election?
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - January 2, 5AM ET
484 shares @ 50.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 2, 2026$0.00
$-245.78
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET
289 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$0.00
$-144.63
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
289 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026$0.00
$-144.48
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET
279 shares @ 52.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 14, 2025$0.00
$-145.75
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET
194 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026$0.00
$-96.94
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 6AM ET
159 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 27, 2026$0.00
$-79.71
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - December 6, 5AM ET
114 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 6, 2025$0.00
$-57.99
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 3, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET$149.69Jul 2, 04:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 2, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 1, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 30, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 29, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 28, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 27, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 26, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 25, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 24, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 23, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 22, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 21, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 20, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 19, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 18, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 17, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 16, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 15, 00:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 2
- Avg trade size
- $147.48
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 18, 00:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 3, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.