Bouncy-Friction
0x6f0247636f28cacf9839bb0b79df947f4c780b2e
Wallet digest
Activity score
92/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
54
Open notional
$5.1K
Total PnL
$-2.4K
Realised
$2.6K
Win rate
92%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 54- NO
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?
799 shares @ 76.0¢·now 97.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$776.17
$168.32
- NO
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,800 in July?
604 shares @ 85.5¢·now 97.1¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$586.13
$70.18
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?
1000 shares @ 46.2¢·now 55.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$555.00
$93.00
- NO
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in July?
500 shares @ 89.4¢·now 98.4¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$492.00
$44.81
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?
302 shares @ 84.8¢·now 98.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$296.23
$39.65
- NO
Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027?
363 shares @ 74.5¢·now 80.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$292.75
$22.14
- NO
Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027?
314 shares @ 75.1¢·now 80.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$251.39
$15.48
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026?
300 shares @ 72.7¢·now 78.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$235.50
$17.50
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026?
400 shares @ 43.0¢·now 51.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$206.00
$34.00
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?
200 shares @ 89.0¢·now 93.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$186.00
$8.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?$14.80Jul 29, 12:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?$55.38Jul 29, 10:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by August 31?$118.17Jul 29, 09:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill PayPal be acquired before 2027?$35.40Jul 29, 09:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?$141.48Jul 29, 09:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Solana reach $80 in July?$30.45Jul 29, 07:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum reach $2,100 in July?$101.78Jul 29, 06:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum reach $2,100 in July?$93.92Jul 29, 06:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum reach $2,100 in July?$93.71Jul 29, 06:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Solana reach $80 in July?$54.96Jul 29, 05:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum reach $2,100 in July?$93.82Jul 29, 05:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?$8.25Jul 29, 05:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?$316.80Jul 29, 05:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?$4.95Jul 29, 05:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?$16.50Jul 29, 05:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Snapchat be acquired before 2027?$4.14Jul 29, 03:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Snapchat be acquired before 2027?$1.05Jul 29, 03:49 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 29, 00:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Solana reach $90 in July?$394.83Jul 28, 23:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?$43.22Jul 28, 19:45 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
35/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
92% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $76.53
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 07:17 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 12:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.