Partial-Destination
0x6f419b270fa9de710800950126ed8c4da5667994
Wallet digest
Activity score
51/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
10
Open notional
$149.99
Total PnL
$-147.26
Realised
$-1.41
Win rate
0%
5 closed
Largest open positions
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down on July 14?
101 shares @ 50.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$101.00
$50.50
- NO
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
15 shares @ 98.3¢·now 99.9¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$15.24
$0.24
- NO
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
15 shares @ 98.9¢·now 99.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$15.01
$0.01
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?
5 shares @ 98.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$5.07
$0.07
- UP
Dogecoin Up or Down - July 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET
5 shares @ 99.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$5.05
$0.05
- YES
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 115m?
4 shares @ 28.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$3.57
$2.57
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?
4 shares @ 84.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$3.57
$0.57
- NO
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 240m and 260m?
1 shares @ 74.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$1.34
$0.34
- YES
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
300 shares @ 49.9¢·now 0.1¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$0.15
$-149.69
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down on July 14?
101 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.00
$-50.50
Recent activity
- SPLITBitcoin Up or Down on July 14?$101.00Jul 13, 20:01 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - July 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET$1.6KJul 13, 20:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - July 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET$5.00Jul 13, 19:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?$5.00Jul 13, 19:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?$3.02Jul 13, 19:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 240m and 260m?$1.01Jul 13, 19:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 115m?$1.04Jul 13, 19:57 UTC
- SPLITSolana Up or Down - July 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET$1.6KJul 13, 19:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Pacific" during Australia PM events on October 20?$0.00Jul 13, 19:55 UTC
- REDEEMBrewers vs. Twins$0.00Jul 13, 19:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Gaza" or "Israel" during Australia PM events on October 20?$1.23Jul 13, 19:55 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Iran ceasefire broken by October 31?$5.23Jul 13, 19:55 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET$1.8KJul 13, 19:55 UTC
- SPLITBitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET$1.8KJun 22, 13:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$298.50Apr 10, 18:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$299.69Apr 10, 18:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$15.00Apr 10, 18:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$15.00Apr 10, 18:50 UTC
- SPLITWill Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$300.00Apr 5, 20:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$300.00Apr 5, 20:53 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
18/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
25 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 70/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 25
- Avg trade size
- $45.61
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 30, 15:42 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 13, 20:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.