0x6f478890a8f615bcae7ad839a624781668bd6ebc
0x6f478890a8f615bcae7ad839a624781668bd6ebc
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
19
Open notional
$28.54
Total PnL
$-10.54
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- YES
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
4 shares @ 55.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$3.33
$1.37
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?
3 shares @ 75.0¢·now 99.7¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$2.66
$0.66
- YES
Will annual inflation be 3.3% in July?
7 shares @ 27.0¢·now 32.5¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$2.41
$0.41
- YES
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?
6 shares @ 34.0¢·now 39.5¢·exp Aug 16, 2026$2.32
$0.32
- NO
Will annual inflation be 3.4% in July?
4 shares @ 56.0¢·now 62.0¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$2.21
$0.21
- YES
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in July?
6 shares @ 30.9¢·now 33.9¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$2.19
$0.19
- YES
Will UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%?
5 shares @ 44.0¢·now 47.0¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$2.14
$0.14
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?
3 shares @ 79.0¢·now 78.5¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$1.99
$-0.01
- NO
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15?
3 shares @ 71.0¢·now 67.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$1.89
$-0.11
- YES
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
3 shares @ 62.0¢·now 55.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.79
$-0.21
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 10, 2026?$0.00Aug 11, 06:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?$2.02Aug 11, 06:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill China's CPI increase by between 0.9% and 1.0% over the 12 month period ending in July 2026?$2.60Aug 11, 01:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15?$2.00Aug 10, 22:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?$0.00Aug 10, 19:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?$2.00Aug 10, 14:14 UTC
- REDEEMUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026?$2.53Aug 10, 07:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $87.50 Week of August 10 2026?$2.05Aug 10, 06:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $189 Week of August 10 2026?$2.06Aug 9, 22:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill annual inflation be 3.4% in July?$2.04Aug 9, 14:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?$2.06Aug 9, 06:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in July?$2.07Aug 8, 21:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?$4.17Aug 8, 20:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?$2.02Aug 8, 13:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026?$2.00Aug 8, 05:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Transgender" during Friday roundtable?$2.78Aug 8, 01:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$2.00Aug 7, 21:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?$3.08Aug 7, 16:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?$2.00Aug 7, 13:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?$2.02Aug 7, 05:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
32 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 32
- Avg trade size
- $2.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 1, 16:59 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 11, 06:55 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.