Tangible-Fuel
0x6f679c4a78330853ac7762a1cda0a469333f102c
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$6.8K
Total PnL
$-13.3K
Realised
$-515.85
Win rate
29%
66 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Bangsamoro Federalist Party (BFP) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections?
684 shares @ 19.0¢·now 18.5¢·exp Sep 14, 2026$126.58
$-3.42
- NO
Will the Republican Party win the TX-10 House seat?
867 shares @ 15.0¢·now 13.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$117.00
$-13.00
- NO
Will the Republican Party win the FL-04 House seat?
565 shares @ 23.0¢·now 20.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$115.87
$-14.13
- NO
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?
584 shares @ 22.0¢·now 19.5¢·exp Sep 10, 2026$113.94
$-14.61
- NO
Will the Democratic Party win the MS-02 House seat?
1294 shares @ 10.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$109.99
$-19.41
- NO
Will the Democrats win the Oregon governor race in 2026?
663 shares @ 15.0¢·now 15.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$99.38
$0.00
- YES
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?
803 shares @ 12.2¢·now 11.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$93.14
$-4.82
- NO
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?
525 shares @ 19.0¢·now 17.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$89.23
$-10.50
- NO
Will the Republican Party win the TN-07 House seat?
709 shares @ 14.0¢·now 12.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$88.61
$-10.63
- YES
Will Drew Campbell win Big Brother season 28?
809 shares @ 10.8¢·now 10.8¢·exp Oct 1, 2026$87.77
$0.40
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Revolut's valuation hit (HIGH) $175B by December 31?$2.03Jul 28, 16:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Golf" or "Golfer" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?$74.20Jul 28, 16:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Belit Onay win the next Hannover mayoral election?$5.10Jul 28, 16:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?$45.03Jul 28, 16:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump endorse Likud in the 2026 Israeli Election?$8.60Jul 28, 16:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?$7.93Jul 28, 16:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 29?$0.13Jul 28, 16:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 29?$0.13Jul 28, 16:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?$15.76Jul 28, 16:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?$0.64Jul 28, 16:26 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?$3.92Jul 28, 16:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on July 29?$4.44Jul 28, 16:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Peace" be in the headlines this week?$18.67Jul 28, 16:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?$51.63Jul 28, 16:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mastercard (MA) beat quarterly earnings?$5.00Jul 28, 16:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Yordan Alvarez have the highest batting average in the 2026 MLB regular season?$1.13Jul 28, 16:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on July 29?$1.00Jul 28, 16:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Yordan Alvarez have the highest batting average in the 2026 MLB regular season?$43.50Jul 28, 16:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Yordan Alvarez have the highest batting average in the 2026 MLB regular season?$17.40Jul 28, 16:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?$81.60Jul 28, 16:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
53/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
29% win rate over 66 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 30/100.
66 closed markets, 29% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $14.62
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 15:49 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 16:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 66 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.