Frilly-Nightingale
0x6f7d43a87aa0b5f1fd3a0727228f48ae5df56b2d
Wallet digest
Activity score
44/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
56
Open notional
$15.75
Total PnL
$-286.63
Realised
$-2.01
Win rate
5%
22 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 56- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 21?
17 shares @ 56.0¢·now 53.5¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$9.29
$-0.43
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 20?
8 shares @ 62.6¢·now 81.0¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$6.47
$1.47
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 16?
113 shares @ 15.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 16, 2026$0.00
$-17.68
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 10?
95 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.91
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 28?
73 shares @ 24.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-18.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 16?
60 shares @ 30.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 16, 2026$0.00
$-18.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 2?
52 shares @ 34.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$0.00
$-18.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 9?
50 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on August 16?
45 shares @ 19.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 16, 2026$0.00
$-8.55
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 15?
41 shares @ 33.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$0.00
$-13.59
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 19?$5.00Aug 19, 19:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 21?$2.86Aug 19, 17:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 21?$4.01Aug 19, 17:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on August 19?$9.50Aug 19, 08:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on August 19?$2.70Aug 19, 06:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on August 19?$2.75Aug 19, 06:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 21?$3.07Aug 19, 05:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 20?$3.05Aug 19, 05:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 19?$19.39Aug 19, 02:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 20?$2.04Aug 19, 02:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 19?$7.00Aug 18, 12:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 19?$4.66Aug 18, 12:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 19?$2.33Aug 18, 10:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 19?$2.86Aug 18, 07:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on August 18?$7.35Aug 18, 05:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on August 18?$0.68Aug 18, 05:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on August 18?$1.39Aug 18, 05:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on August 18?$2.17Aug 18, 05:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 98-99°F on August 17?$5.00Aug 18, 05:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on August 18?$3.78Aug 18, 05:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
45/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
5% win rate over 22 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
22 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $3.49
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 16, 03:02 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 19, 19:24 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 22 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.