Pessimistic-Writer
0x6f8008d80292b5d0dcced00a45b520a98998e998
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
24
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-173.95
Realised
$-36.91
Win rate
0%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 24- YES
Will the price of XRP be between $2.20 and $2.30 on January 11?
281 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 11, 2026$0.00
$-2.31
- UP
XRP Up or Down - January 13, 11PM ET
280 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 14, 2026$0.00
$-2.80
- DOWN
Solana Up or Down - January 13, 3AM ET
273 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 13, 2026$0.00
$-4.10
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
271 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 10, 2026$0.00
$-4.06
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $88,000 January 5-11?
270 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.35
- YES
Will the price of XRP be above $2.30 on January 9?
267 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 9, 2026$0.00
$-5.34
- UP
XRP Up or Down - January 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET
266 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 12, 2026$0.00
$-4.52
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,900 and $3,000 on January 2?
265 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 2, 2026$0.00
$-1.59
- YES
Will the price of XRP be above $2.40 on January 14?
265 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 14, 2026$0.00
$-1.06
- NO
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on January 2?
265 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 2, 2026$0.00
$-2.65
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on July 21?$1.30Jul 20, 19:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be above $1.20 on July 15?$2.88Jul 15, 00:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on July 9?$88.15Jul 9, 16:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on July 9?$8.87Jul 9, 01:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on July 9?$24.23Jul 9, 01:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on July 9?$3.88Jul 9, 01:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on July 9?$48.45Jul 9, 01:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 13?$1.41Jun 13, 01:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 1?$104.47Jun 1, 19:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 1?$102.38May 31, 20:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 30?$3.79May 30, 02:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be above $1.40 on May 27?$1.40May 26, 21:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be above $80 on May 24?$3.95May 24, 02:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 23?$109.88May 23, 18:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 23?$105.81May 23, 02:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 1?$16.63May 23, 02:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 17?$1.54May 17, 02:13 UTC
- REDEEMHYPE Up or Down on April 6?$23.33May 17, 02:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on April 21?$65.09May 10, 14:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 13?$0.00May 1, 10:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
23/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $30.30
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 20, 11:30 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 20, 19:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.