0x6fc8211331c5e9d1904befba1cde992f59afd0db
0x6fc8211331c5e9d1904befba1cde992f59afd0db
Wallet digest
Activity score
81/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
5
Open notional
$822.01
Total PnL
$-38.07
Realised
$17.07
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?
604 shares @ 66.6¢·now 54.0¢·exp Oct 28, 2026$326.24
$-76.03
- YES
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
392 shares @ 60.0¢·now 61.0¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$239.37
$3.92
- NO
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?
286 shares @ 42.5¢·now 50.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$144.30
$22.74
- YES
Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?
102 shares @ 74.0¢·now 72.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$74.28
$-1.54
- NO
Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?
138 shares @ 30.6¢·now 27.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$37.82
$-4.24
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?$5.32Jun 26, 19:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?$36.74Jun 26, 19:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?$75.82Jun 26, 19:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?$34.68Jun 26, 16:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?$24.20Jun 26, 16:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?$359.83Jun 26, 15:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?$41.41Jun 26, 14:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?$284.78Jun 26, 13:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?$2.67Jun 26, 13:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?$354.88Jun 26, 13:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?$18.25Jun 26, 13:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?$8.40Jun 26, 13:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?$207.01Jun 26, 13:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?$34.50Jun 26, 13:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?$440.21Jun 26, 13:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?$31.50Jun 26, 13:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?$5.60Jun 26, 13:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?$96.96Jun 26, 13:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?$279.82Jun 26, 10:57 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$4.05Jun 26, 02:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
24/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
32 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 67/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 32
- Avg trade size
- $132.07
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 21, 00:45 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 26, 19:30 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.