Fluffy-Declination
0x6fd24c79734dcef8a51884403e9fb1b24c837414
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
97
Open notional
$14.91
Total PnL
$-283.18
Realised
$8.91
Win rate
73%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 97- YES
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?
10 shares @ 34.0¢·now 54.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.40
$2.00
- YES
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 65.0¢·now 73.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$3.65
$0.40
- YES
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026?
10 shares @ 39.0¢·now 27.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.75
$-1.15
- YES
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?
10 shares @ 23.0¢·now 17.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.70
$-0.60
- YES
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?
5 shares @ 4.0¢·now 8.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.43
$0.23
- YES
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day?
5 shares @ 3.0¢·now 6.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.30
$0.15
- YES
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?
5 shares @ 20.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.28
$-0.72
- YES
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?
5 shares @ 2.5¢·now 4.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.22
$0.10
- YES
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day?
5 shares @ 1.8¢·now 2.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.10
$0.01
- YES
Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?
5 shares @ 1.0¢·now 1.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.07
$0.02
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET$5.00Jun 26, 08:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET$4.95Jun 26, 08:29 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET$15.00Jun 26, 08:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET$4.91Jun 26, 08:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET$2.94Jun 26, 08:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET$2.03Jun 26, 08:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET$2.64Jun 26, 08:14 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET$5.00Jun 26, 08:11 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET$20.00Jun 26, 07:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET$4.95Jun 26, 07:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET$4.95Jun 26, 07:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET$4.95Jun 26, 07:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET$4.95Jun 26, 07:35 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET$20.00Jun 26, 07:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET$4.95Jun 26, 07:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET$4.95Jun 26, 07:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET$4.81Jun 26, 07:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET$4.73Jun 26, 07:29 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET$15.00Jun 26, 07:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET$4.95Jun 26, 07:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
36/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
73% win rate over 15 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $4.63
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 26, 04:40 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 26, 08:36 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.