Serious-Picnic
0x6ff6469969520918c9d9e2ee3cd94de13a41e4fb
Wallet digest
Activity score
29/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-5.9K
Realised
$-186.80
Win rate
0%
200 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 25?
339 shares @ 14.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$0.00
$-49.59
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 10?
225 shares @ 20.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$0.00
$-45.87
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 5?
217 shares @ 21.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 5, 2026$0.00
$-46.39
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 20?
206 shares @ 19.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 20, 2026$0.00
$-39.71
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 5?
189 shares @ 31.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 5, 2026$0.00
$-58.59
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 25?
185 shares @ 19.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$0.00
$-36.69
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 11?
185 shares @ 13.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026$0.00
$-24.67
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 13?
164 shares @ 24.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 13, 2026$0.00
$-40.40
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 30?
151 shares @ 10.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-15.59
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C on July 12?
151 shares @ 29.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.00
$-44.59
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on July 27?$6.42Jul 28, 04:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 27?$3.84Jul 27, 23:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 27?$2.94Jul 27, 22:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on July 27?$2.56Jul 27, 22:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on July 27?$4.08Jul 27, 22:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on July 27?$4.44Jul 27, 21:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on July 27?$13.41Jul 27, 21:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on July 27?$4.13Jul 27, 18:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Busan be 35°C on July 27?$3.12Jul 27, 16:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on July 27?$40.20Jul 27, 16:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on July 27?$33.70Jul 27, 16:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on July 27?$10.45Jul 27, 16:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 27?$20.38Jul 27, 16:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 27?$10.00Jul 27, 16:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 27?$5.88Jul 27, 16:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 27?$33.16Jul 27, 16:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on July 27?$2.04Jul 27, 16:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 27?$2.10Jul 27, 16:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on July 27?$16.02Jul 27, 16:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 27?$3.57Jul 27, 16:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
62/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 200 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
25 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 28/100.
200 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 25
- Avg trade size
- $9.10
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 02:09 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 04:47 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 200 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.