Medium-Innovation-Strategy
0x70242b12e8cb98a44a6f5ccb422ef96cad69254c
Wallet digest
Activity score
42/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
55
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-99.28
Realised
$-5.24
Win rate
31%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 55- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET
960 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$0.00
$-9.60
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 7?
329 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 22?
200 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 22, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 9?
143 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 21?
133 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-0.67
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on July 7?
129 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 23?
126 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.00
$-0.96
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 21?
112 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-1.12
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 22?
86 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 22, 2026$0.00
$-0.94
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 7?
80 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$0.00
$-2.41
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 10?$0.94Jul 10, 00:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 38°C or higher on July 9?$0.30Jul 9, 02:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 38°C or higher on July 9?$0.09Jul 9, 02:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 9?$1.05Jul 9, 02:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 9?$0.35Jul 9, 02:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 9?$0.80Jul 9, 02:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 9?$1.69Jul 9, 02:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 9?$1.89Jul 9, 02:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 38°C or higher on July 9?$0.09Jul 9, 02:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on July 9?$0.04Jul 9, 02:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 9?$7.00Jul 9, 02:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on July 9?$1.69Jul 9, 02:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on July 9?$0.04Jul 9, 01:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on July 9?$0.04Jul 9, 01:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on July 9?$0.04Jul 9, 01:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on July 9?$0.04Jul 9, 01:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on July 9?$0.04Jul 9, 01:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on July 9?$0.04Jul 9, 01:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on July 9?$0.04Jul 9, 01:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on July 9?$0.04Jul 9, 01:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
33/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
31% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 32/100.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.70
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 7, 03:30 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 10, 00:39 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.