Demanding-Stake
0x703d06b0f6f6c893876d43cd9b0b7977b9c380f6
Wallet digest
Activity score
96/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
18
Open notional
$649.58
Total PnL
$-110.26
Realised
$26.36
Win rate
89%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 18- NO
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?
286 shares @ 34.0¢·now 36.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$104.41
$7.24
- NO
Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by December 31?
123 shares @ 80.0¢·now 82.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$101.04
$2.46
- NO
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?
227 shares @ 44.0¢·now 39.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$88.64
$-11.37
- NO
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by December 31?
214 shares @ 45.0¢·now 35.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$75.97
$-20.33
- NO
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026?
70 shares @ 66.9¢·now 68.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$48.06
$1.10
- NO
Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by July 31?
60 shares @ 83.0¢·now 79.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$47.70
$-2.10
- NO
Will Russia capture Kozacha Lopan by September 30, 2026?
63 shares @ 79.0¢·now 73.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$46.51
$-3.48
- NO
Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by December 31?
75 shares @ 62.0¢·now 57.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$43.35
$-3.39
- NO
Will Russia capture Havrylivka by December 31, 2026?
55 shares @ 74.6¢·now 69.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$38.22
$-2.83
- NO
Will Russia capture Kindrativka by September 30?
57 shares @ 59.8¢·now 61.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$34.72
$0.66
Recent activity
- REWARD$3.04Jul 14, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?$158.82Jul 13, 20:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Ternuvate again by July 31?$8.30Jul 13, 15:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by December 31?$2.16Jul 13, 13:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Ternuvate again by July 31?$41.50Jul 13, 11:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?$55.02Jul 13, 10:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?$15.64Jul 13, 10:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?$26.51Jul 13, 08:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?$118.22Jul 13, 08:16 UTC
- REWARD$3.43Jul 13, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Pokrovka by July 31?$54.54Jul 12, 21:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Huliaipilske by September 30?$22.20Jul 12, 20:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Dobropillia by December 31?$3.90Jul 12, 17:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?$100.00Jul 12, 17:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kozacha Lopan by September 30, 2026?$10.11Jul 12, 15:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Rodynske again by September 30?$0.90Jul 12, 11:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Serhiivka by July 31?$72.84Jul 12, 10:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kozacha Lopan by September 30, 2026?$39.88Jul 12, 09:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?$73.86Jul 12, 07:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?$1.13Jul 12, 07:39 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
30/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
89% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $41.36
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 8, 19:34 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 00:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.