Naughty-Conditioner
0x7047aa2ba3d2be1c15f07a139c571a3fb1f431b3
Wallet digest
Activity score
41/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
157
Open notional
$9.96
Total PnL
$-136.20
Realised
$-5.99
Win rate
1%
131 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 157- YES
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
166 shares @ 4.2¢·now 4.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.89
$-0.08
- NO
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?
3 shares @ 68.0¢·now 62.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.84
$-0.16
- NO
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
2 shares @ 62.0¢·now 52.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.24
$-0.22
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on August 22?
2 shares @ 20.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 22, 2026$0.00
$-0.40
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 6?
935 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$0.00
$-28.01
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C or below on July 28?
568 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.98
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on July 26?
486 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$0.00
$-1.25
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on July 25?
425 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$0.00
$-1.61
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on July 15?
411 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.00
$-0.41
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C or below on July 16?
411 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$0.00
$-0.82
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYXi Jinping out before 2027?$1.04Aug 20, 05:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYXi Jinping out before 2027?$2.07Aug 20, 05:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYXi Jinping out before 2027?$2.07Aug 20, 05:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYXi Jinping out before 2027?$2.07Aug 20, 05:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on August 21?$0.10Aug 20, 05:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on August 20?$0.12Aug 20, 05:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on August 22?$0.42Aug 20, 05:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on August 21?$0.10Aug 20, 05:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 38°C on August 20?$0.01Aug 20, 05:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on August 21?$0.10Aug 20, 05:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on August 20?$0.12Aug 20, 05:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on August 21?$0.10Aug 20, 05:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on August 20?$0.08Aug 20, 05:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on August 21?$0.10Aug 20, 05:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on August 20?$0.12Aug 20, 05:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?$1.01Aug 20, 05:01 UTC
- TRADESELLXi Jinping out before 2027?$7.51Aug 20, 05:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYXi Jinping out before 2027?$2.08Aug 20, 03:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYXi Jinping out before 2027?$2.08Aug 20, 03:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYXi Jinping out before 2027?$2.08Aug 20, 03:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
51/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
1% win rate over 131 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.
131 closed markets, 1% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.53
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 20, 03:04 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 20, 05:36 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 131 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.