Wallet digest

active

Activity score

32/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-552.60

Realised

$-37.15

Win rate

78 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 90

DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET
1120 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026
$0.00
$-55.59
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET
788 shares @ 7.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026
$0.00
$-60.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET
605 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026
$0.00
$-14.96
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET
358 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET
323 shares @ 6.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026
$0.00
$-22.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET
177 shares @ -0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026
$0.00
$0.57
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET
176 shares @ 6.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 6, 2026
$0.00
$-11.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET
100 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00

Recent activity

REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET$2.38Jun 17, 07:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET$1.04Jun 17, 06:47 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET$1.27Jun 15, 03:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET$1.01Jun 15, 02:59 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET$1.54Jun 13, 13:06 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET$1.02Jun 13, 13:00 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Brazil win on 2026-06-13?$5.06Jun 13, 12:59 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET$1.96Jun 12, 14:31 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET$1.03Jun 12, 14:10 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Canada win on 2026-06-12?$1.01Jun 12, 13:58 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET$1.49Jun 10, 14:16 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET$1.02Jun 10, 14:10 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET$2.50Jun 4, 06:55 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET$1.04Jun 4, 06:50 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET$2.08May 28, 13:39 UTC
TRADEBUYIndian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals$14.20May 27, 10:46 UTC
TRADESELLIndian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans$14.81May 26, 15:30 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET$1.04May 26, 13:05 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET$2.17May 26, 12:56 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET$1.04May 26, 12:52 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

59/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

4% win rate over 78 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 25/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

78 closed markets, 4% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity41 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry33 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk25 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 41
Avg trade size: $3.60
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: May 14, 05:49 UTC
Last active: Jun 17, 07:00 UTC
Win rate sample: 78 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 05:06:38 UTC·src:Polymarket Data