First-Commonsense
0x709221e6855ddb37399224b01f6ecd98b6917618
Wallet digest
Activity score
52/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
40
Open notional
$0.50
Total PnL
$-49.59
Realised
$-0.11
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 40- YES
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
77 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.50
$-0.50
- YES
Bitway FDV above $200M one day after launch?
1175 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.00
$-11.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on March 3?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- WEST INDIES
T20 World Cup: India vs West Indies
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 8?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Bitway FDV above $400M one day after launch?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 28?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will "Scream 7" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?
300 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 2, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will "Scream 7" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?
260 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 2, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 8?$1.00Mar 7, 18:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 8?$1.00Mar 7, 18:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 8?$1.00Mar 7, 18:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 8?$1.00Mar 7, 18:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 8?$1.00Mar 7, 18:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 4?$8.78Mar 4, 09:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitway FDV above $200M one day after launch?$10.00Mar 3, 11:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitway FDV above $400M one day after launch?$1.00Mar 3, 11:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitway FDV above $200M one day after launch?$1.00Mar 3, 11:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET$1.00Mar 3, 06:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Opinion launch a token on March 4?$1.00Mar 3, 06:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 3?$1.00Mar 3, 04:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 3?$1.00Mar 3, 04:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on March 3?$1.00Mar 3, 04:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 3?$1.00Mar 3, 04:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 3?$1.00Mar 3, 04:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 2?$0.00Mar 3, 03:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 2?$18.49Mar 2, 17:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 3?$1.00Mar 2, 17:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 2?$1.00Mar 2, 16:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $1.88
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 28, 10:28 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 7, 18:28 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".