Outlying-Candle
0x70b14370b308dab9c078aa72ad989fdc44fc2336
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
119
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-407.21
Realised
$48.00
Win rate
92%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 119- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on January 13?
339 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 13, 2026$0.00
$-13.30
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 15?
260 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 15, 2026$0.00
$-4.42
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET
250 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 14, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- DOWN
XRP Up or Down - January 15, 2AM ET
220 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 15, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 14?
120 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 14, 2026$0.00
$-9.60
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down on January 30?
85 shares @ 5.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 30, 2026$0.00
$-4.53
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on February 3?
80 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.24
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on January 26?
76 shares @ 3.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 26, 2026$0.00
$-2.44
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 14?
60 shares @ 14.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 14, 2026$0.00
$-8.70
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on January 19?
60 shares @ 17.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 19, 2026$0.00
$-10.70
Recent activity
- REDEEMFrance vs. England: Both Teams to Score$6.00Jul 18, 23:17 UTC
- REDEEMFrance vs. England: O/U 2.5$6.00Jul 18, 23:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score$2.66Jul 18, 13:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. England: Both Teams to Score$4.20Jul 18, 13:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. England: O/U 2.5$4.09Jul 18, 13:40 UTC
- REDEEMEngland vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score$6.00Jul 15, 21:17 UTC
- REDEEMGames Total: O/U 2.5$6.00Jul 15, 17:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYMap Handicap: paiN (-1.5) vs Phantom (+1.5)$2.06Jul 15, 09:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYMap Handicap: WC (-1.5) vs Gentle Mates (+1.5)$1.92Jul 15, 09:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYGames Total: O/U 2.5$2.89Jul 15, 09:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Heroic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3 Playoffs$2.41Jul 15, 09:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYEngland vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score$3.19Jul 15, 07:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. Spain: Team to Advance$1.98Jul 14, 19:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score$3.49Jul 14, 19:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. Spain: Team to Advance$3.43Jul 14, 18:34 UTC
- REDEEMArgentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance$10.00Jul 12, 04:00 UTC
- REDEEMNorway vs. England: Team to Advance$5.00Jul 12, 00:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWimbledon WTA: Karolina Muchova vs Linda Noskova$7.59Jul 11, 16:58 UTC
- TRADESELLKarolina Muchova vs. Linda Noskova: Total Sets O/U 2.5$3.96Jul 11, 15:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWimbledon WTA: Karolina Muchova vs Linda Noskova$0.54Jul 11, 15:36 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
40/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
92% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $3.24
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 5, 19:13 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 18, 23:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.