Minor-Oregano
0x70fcf41f592c6f1ee8fc0fd45e9bf609fcc288c1
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
135
Open notional
$114.55
Total PnL
$1.5K
Realised
$1.6K
Win rate
53%
47 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 135- NO
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?
38 shares @ 8.0¢·now 11.5¢·exp Sep 17, 2026$4.31
$1.31
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
17 shares @ 17.2¢·now 24.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$4.26
$1.26
- NO
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
4 shares @ 24.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$3.77
$2.77
- YES
Japan recession in 2026?
8 shares @ 37.9¢·now 47.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2027$3.72
$0.72
- NO
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026?
6 shares @ 17.0¢·now 56.8¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$3.34
$2.34
- NO
Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026?
4 shares @ 56.0¢·now 77.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.77
$0.77
- YES
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?
4 shares @ 47.0¢·now 64.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.72
$0.72
- NO
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
3 shares @ 36.0¢·now 97.5¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$2.71
$1.71
- YES
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?
9 shares @ 21.9¢·now 29.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.65
$0.65
- NO
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?
3 shares @ 33.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$2.62
$1.62
Recent activity
- REDEEMUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?$1.92Aug 16, 06:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?$1.00Aug 11, 22:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill annual inflation be 3.1% or less in July?$1.05Aug 10, 23:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill annual inflation be 3.2% in July?$1.05Aug 10, 23:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$1.00Aug 8, 22:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 be negative?$1.05Aug 8, 22:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0% and 0.1%?$1.05Aug 8, 22:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill annual inflation be 3.4% in July?$10.21Aug 8, 22:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the August 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%?$1.05Aug 8, 22:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the August 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?$1.04Aug 8, 22:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the August 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?$1.04Aug 8, 22:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?$3.23Aug 7, 15:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?$1.00Aug 6, 20:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?$1.00Aug 6, 20:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?$1.00Aug 6, 20:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?$1.00Aug 6, 20:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?$1.00Aug 6, 20:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?$1.00Aug 6, 20:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?$1.03Aug 6, 20:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?$1.03Aug 6, 20:37 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
59/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
53% win rate over 47 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 24/100.
47 closed markets, 53% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $1.23
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 15:49 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 16, 06:02 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 47 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.