Mad-Activist
0x715df5d081e2b1bdd226e865316e707adf8db09b
Wallet digest
Activity score
53/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
16
Open notional
$2.8K
Total PnL
$-216.9K
Realised
$-51.7K
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?
3024 shares @ 66.5¢·now 93.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.8K
$816.59
- YES
Ethereum all time high in 2024?
446327 shares @ 13.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 30, 2024$0.00
$-58.2K
- YES
Ethereum all time high in Q4 2024?
284092 shares @ 12.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2024$0.00
$-36.6K
- YES
Will Ethereum hit $4,500.00 by March 31?
261251 shares @ 3.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2025$0.00
$-8.7K
- YES
Will Ethereum hit $3,500.00 again by March 31?
254911 shares @ 5.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2025$0.00
$-14.8K
- YES
Will Ethereum hit $5,000.00 in December?
180650 shares @ 12.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2024$0.00
$-22.7K
- YES
Will Ethereum hit $3,000.00 again by March 31?
137781 shares @ 5.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2025$0.00
$-7.5K
- YES
Will Ethereum hit $3500 by February 28 2025?
41304 shares @ 5.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2025$0.00
$-2.4K
- YES
Will Ethereum hit $2,800.00 again by March 31?
41125 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2025$0.00
$-2.1K
- NO
Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by December 31?
31695 shares @ 16.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-5.2K
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.25Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.25Jul 27, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.25Jul 26, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.25Jul 25, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.25Jul 24, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.25Jul 23, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.25Jul 22, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.25Jul 21, 20:07 UTC
- YIELD$0.25Jul 21, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.25Jul 19, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.25Jul 18, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.25Jul 17, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.25Jul 16, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.25Jul 15, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.25Jul 14, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.25Jul 13, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.25Jul 12, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.25Jul 11, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.25Jul 10, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.25Jul 9, 00:24 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
13/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 9, 00:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.