Deadly-Safety
0x717fb14f732907d9f27325ad41d2de4d4cea3fb1
Wallet digest
Activity score
53/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
83
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-2.1K
Realised
$-84.39
Win rate
57%
21 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 83- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET
27500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 8, 2026$0.00
$-55.00
- NO
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?
21500 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-64.97
- YES
Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" this week? (March 15)
1975 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-77.56
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 19°C on March 16?
1118 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 16, 2026$0.00
$-3.36
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 20°C on March 16?
1000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 16, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET
962 shares @ 43.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 11, 2026$0.00
$-420.80
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET
631 shares @ 12.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 8, 2026$0.00
$-79.77
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET
591 shares @ 39.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 11, 2026$0.00
$-230.45
- YES
Iran leadership change by March 13?
500 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.50
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET
460 shares @ 17.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 8, 2026$0.00
$-80.24
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 22?$7.81Jul 21, 17:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 22?$14.97Jul 21, 16:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 22?$10.50Jul 21, 14:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 22?$16.50Jul 21, 14:29 UTC
- REWARD$3.22Jul 17, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 16?$57.66Jul 16, 02:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 16?$3.10Jul 16, 02:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 16?$3.10Jul 16, 02:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 16?$4.52Jul 16, 02:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 16?$18.33Jul 16, 02:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 16?$5.98Jul 16, 02:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 16?$35.00Jul 16, 01:59 UTC
- REWARD$10.24Jul 15, 00:00 UTC
- REWARD$9.06Jul 9, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on July 8?$1.49Jul 8, 09:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on July 8?$1.46Jul 8, 09:54 UTC
- REWARD$13.45Jul 3, 00:00 UTC
- REWARD$4.40Jul 2, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 3?$4.40Jul 1, 23:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 3?$4.30Jul 1, 23:40 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
49/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
57% win rate over 21 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
21 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $16.39
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 22, 22:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 17:04 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 21 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.