Defiant-Vane
0x71b5d8b485b0c403e1917598341b583a3b4624bd
Wallet digest
Activity score
39/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
172
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-348.57
Realised
$-12.62
Win rate
22%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 172- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on March 24?
1030 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 25, 2026$0.00
$-2.06
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on March 25?
283 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 25, 2026$0.00
$-2.52
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 25?
243 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 25, 2026$0.00
$-6.03
- YES
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?
88 shares @ 5.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 5°C on March 30?
48 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 30, 2026$0.00
$-0.87
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on March 25?
45 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 25, 2026$0.00
$-1.22
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on March 25?
45 shares @ 3.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 25, 2026$0.00
$-1.65
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 3°C on March 27?
44 shares @ 10.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-4.82
- YES
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?
44 shares @ 68.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-30.00
- SPAIN
Spread: Spain (-2.5)
39 shares @ 38.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMGermany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score$4.35Jun 29, 23:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYGermany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score$2.03Jun 29, 12:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Germany (-1.5)$1.02Jun 29, 11:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Germany (-1.5)$1.02Jun 29, 11:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw?$5.11Jun 29, 11:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET$1.03Jun 29, 07:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?$10.12Jun 24, 14:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET$1.07Jun 21, 14:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?$30.29Jun 21, 13:11 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET$0.00Jun 21, 01:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET$1.03Jun 21, 01:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET$1.02Jun 21, 01:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?$5.14Jun 20, 23:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Curaçao win on 2026-06-25?$3.88Jun 20, 23:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Curaçao win on 2026-06-25?$5.14Jun 20, 23:54 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET$1.39Jun 19, 06:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET$1.02Jun 19, 06:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET$1.07Jun 19, 01:44 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET$0.18Jun 19, 01:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET$1.04Jun 19, 01:41 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
31/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
22% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $2.67
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 17, 14:45 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 29, 23:42 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.