Occasional-Corral
0x71b93ed9c87836318a2d563c42fabd7f3496774d
Wallet digest
Activity score
46/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
45
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-5.9K
Realised
$277.92
Win rate
40%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 45- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 18?
14112 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 18, 2025$0.00
$-263.06
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on October 18?
14000 shares @ 5.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 18, 2025$0.00
$-739.97
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on October 18?
10884 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 18, 2025$0.00
$-73.65
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on October 17?
10124 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 17, 2025$0.00
$-243.11
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 12?
5895 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 12, 2025$0.00
$-178.11
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on October 13?
5427 shares @ 12.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 13, 2025$0.00
$-683.07
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,200 on October 18?
5000 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 18, 2025$0.00
$-25.00
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,300 on October 25?
5000 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 25, 2025$0.00
$-85.00
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,000 on October 16?
4000 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 16, 2025$0.00
$-160.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on October 18?
3481 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 18, 2025$0.00
$-62.71
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $3,900 on October 21?$0.22Nov 13, 17:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill the government shutdown end November 13?$103.00Nov 13, 17:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the government shutdown end November 13?$10.34Nov 13, 04:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the government shutdown end November 13?$71.55Nov 13, 04:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the government shutdown end November 12?$56.75Nov 13, 04:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the government shutdown end November 12?$9.20Nov 13, 04:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the government shutdown end November 12?$15.25Nov 13, 04:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the government shutdown end November 12?$81.36Nov 12, 18:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the government shutdown end November 12?$208.79Nov 12, 18:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - October 25, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET$9.95Oct 25, 07:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - October 25, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET$10.80Oct 25, 07:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - October 25, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET$10.80Oct 25, 07:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - October 25, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET$0.84Oct 25, 07:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - October 25, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET$3.60Oct 25, 07:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $4,300 on October 25?$7.18Oct 24, 17:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $4,300 on October 25?$0.06Oct 24, 17:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $4,300 on October 25?$0.25Oct 24, 17:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $4,300 on October 25?$1.83Oct 24, 16:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $4,300 on October 25?$0.02Oct 24, 16:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $4,300 on October 25?$0.02Oct 24, 16:27 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
40% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $16.48
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Oct 24, 12:55 UTC
- Last active
- Nov 13, 17:51 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.