Petty-Puzzle
0x71d0ad0fbe3e506d89c13c99a33f674120aab8dd
Wallet digest
Activity score
91/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
22
Open notional
$115.26
Total PnL
$-66.43
Realised
$5.64
Win rate
100%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 22- NO
Will Reve have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?
20 shares @ 90.0¢·now 92.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$18.40
$0.40
- NO
Will Kate O’Flynn – “Widow’s Bay” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actress in a comedy series?
42 shares @ 74.0¢·now 42.5¢·exp Sep 14, 2026$17.87
$-13.21
- NO
Will AfD win the most seats in 2 German state elections in September 2026?
51 shares @ 30.4¢·now 28.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$14.59
$-0.96
- NO
Will AbbVie Q2 Global Rinvoq net revenues be above $2.5B?
20 shares @ 36.0¢·now 52.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$10.40
$3.20
- YES
Will DeepSeek be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
30 shares @ 30.0¢·now 33.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$9.90
$0.90
- YES
Will Turkey rejoin the F-35 program by June 30, 2027?
26 shares @ 31.9¢·now 36.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$9.34
$1.05
- YES
Cuba nationwide internet/power outage by August 31?
20 shares @ 66.0¢·now 44.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$8.80
$-4.40
- NO
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?
5 shares @ 88.3¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.86
$0.17
- YES
Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,176,000 and $1,198,000 on September 30?
36 shares @ 28.5¢·now 12.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$4.36
$-6.00
- YES
Will Christopher McDonald – “Hacks” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a comedy series?
92 shares @ 19.5¢·now 4.7¢·exp Sep 14, 2026$4.28
$-13.71
Recent activity
- REWARD$1.28Jul 29, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mike Pressler win the 2026 PLL Coach of the Year?$0.11Jul 28, 17:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mike Pressler win the 2026 PLL Coach of the Year?$0.29Jul 28, 17:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mike Pressler win the 2026 PLL Coach of the Year?$0.40Jul 28, 17:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Putin" during Fox & Friends appearance?$14.04Jul 28, 11:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Putin" during Fox & Friends appearance?$8.20Jul 28, 10:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Putin" during Fox & Friends appearance?$6.00Jul 28, 07:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Putin" during Fox & Friends appearance?$7.20Jul 28, 06:44 UTC
- REWARD$1.88Jul 28, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reve have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?$18.00Jul 27, 16:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill There be 1-3 Knife Kills at Blast Bounty 2026 Season 2?$0.00Jul 27, 16:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Turkey rejoin the F-35 program by June 30, 2027?$1.48Jul 26, 14:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill There be 1-3 Knife Kills at Blast Bounty 2026 Season 2?$3.60Jul 26, 05:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Turkey rejoin the F-35 program by June 30, 2027?$6.80Jul 25, 14:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,176,000 and $1,198,000 on September 30?$0.14Jul 25, 13:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,176,000 and $1,198,000 on September 30?$0.14Jul 25, 13:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next Claude Opus model be released on July 28, 2026?$0.00Jul 25, 06:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next Claude Opus model be released on July 27, 2026?$0.00Jul 25, 06:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next Claude Opus model be released on July 24, 2026?$0.00Jul 25, 06:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next Claude Opus model be released on July 29, 2026?$0.00Jul 25, 06:48 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
23/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $4.96
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 24, 03:28 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.