Modern-Chance
0x72125163388e43c1f8833d6d421b3fe58231c117
Wallet digest
Activity score
37/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
88
Open notional
$0.75
Total PnL
$-894.41
Realised
$117.13
Win rate
11%
76 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 88- YES
Will Hyperliquid reach $72 in August?
23 shares @ 5.0¢·now 3.3¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$0.75
$-0.41
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on July 2?
5614 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$0.00
$-11.22
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on July 3?
4172 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$0.00
$-4.17
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 10?
3441 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 10, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 10?
2500 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 10, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 5?
2091 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$0.00
$-18.30
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on July 5?
2000 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$0.00
$-36.00
- YES
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on July 3?
1791 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$0.00
$-10.51
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 2?
1700 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$0.00
$-5.10
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 3?
1628 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$0.00
$-11.24
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET$0.75Aug 18, 00:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET$1.05Aug 18, 00:14 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET$1.25Aug 18, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET$1.05Aug 18, 00:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum reach $2,200 in August?$1.64Aug 18, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 7PM ET$0.12Aug 17, 23:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 7PM ET$0.58Aug 17, 23:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - August 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET$1.06Aug 17, 23:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,200 in August?$2.13Aug 17, 23:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hyperliquid reach $72 in August?$1.24Aug 17, 08:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on August 17?$0.38Aug 17, 08:34 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET$0.00Aug 17, 06:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET$1.07Aug 17, 06:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on August 17?$2.14Aug 17, 06:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on August 17?$2.14Aug 17, 06:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET$0.05Aug 17, 03:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,050 on August 16?$0.01Aug 16, 17:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET$0.15Aug 16, 16:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 16?$0.00Aug 16, 16:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 16?$0.00Aug 16, 16:21 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
50/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
11% win rate over 76 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
76 closed markets, 11% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $1.25
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 15, 05:57 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 00:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 76 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.