Pleasing-Pantologist
0x72163233f9a8adc4b54e115c40febeee1d46cb34
Wallet digest
Activity score
78/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
104
Open notional
$811.16
Total PnL
$-3.4K
Realised
$-136.50
Win rate
57%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 104- YES
Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30?
942 shares @ 31.0¢·now 29.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$273.23
$-19.09
- YES
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?
766 shares @ 43.4¢·now 32.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$245.17
$-87.33
- YES
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
1907 shares @ 10.6¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$181.18
$-20.94
- YES
Will Russia enter Krasnopillya by September 30?
445 shares @ 23.0¢·now 21.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$93.45
$-8.75
- YES
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$8.25
$-2.75
- YES
Trump out as President by July 31?
1374 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$7.56
$-0.06
- YES
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 25.0¢·now 27.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.35
$0.10
- YES
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30?
5 shares @ 30.0¢·now 19.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$0.97
$-0.53
- YES
Will Russia capture Lyman by March 31, 2026?
2090 shares @ 28.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-584.36
- YES
Trump out as President by June 30?
1881 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-12.39
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30?$100.00Jul 14, 09:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Krasnopillya by September 30?$0.12Jul 14, 02:53 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 14, 00:14 UTC
- REWARD$2.84Jul 14, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Krasnopillya by September 30?$79.22Jul 13, 22:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30?$55.00Jul 13, 21:43 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 13, 00:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30?$8.32Jul 12, 12:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Krasnopillya by September 30?$2.30Jul 12, 12:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Krasnopillya by September 30?$19.56Jul 12, 12:24 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 12, 00:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30?$29.00Jul 11, 13:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 11, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Norway win on 2026-07-11?$14.53Jul 10, 21:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Spain win on 2026-07-10?$43.89Jul 10, 20:53 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 10, 00:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spain win on 2026-07-10?$29.35Jul 9, 22:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30?$100.00Jul 9, 21:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill France win on 2026-07-09?$84.62Jul 9, 21:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France win on 2026-07-09?$60.00Jul 9, 20:49 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
57% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 61/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $38.71
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 5, 21:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 09:59 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.