Probable-Messenger
0x727ff21a874277ba937e087879dc87c14d2e508f
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
15
Open notional
$19.15
Total PnL
$-116.63
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- YES
Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of December 2025?
2 shares @ 78.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.92
$0.42
- NO
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
2 shares @ 99.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.71
$0.01
- NO
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?
2 shares @ 98.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.64
$0.02
- YES
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?
2 shares @ 97.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.60
$0.04
- YES
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
2 shares @ 98.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.53
$0.03
- NO
Will Z.ai have the #2 AI model at the end of December 2025?
1 shares @ 99.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.43
$0.01
- NO
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
1 shares @ 98.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.42
$0.02
- NO
Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?
1 shares @ 99.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.41
$0.01
- NO
Will Z.ai have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?
1 shares @ 99.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.35
$0.01
- YES
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?
1 shares @ 98.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.32
$0.02
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?$1.62Dec 29, 01:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?$1.56Dec 29, 01:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Z.ai have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?$1.34Dec 29, 01:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill xAI have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?$1.40Dec 29, 01:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?$1.30Dec 29, 01:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of December 2025?$1.27Dec 29, 01:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Z.ai have the #2 AI model at the end of December 2025?$1.42Dec 29, 01:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI have the #2 AI model at the end of December 2025?$1.25Dec 29, 01:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill xAI have the #2 AI model at the end of December 2025?$1.22Dec 29, 01:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the #2 AI model at the end of December 2025?$1.50Dec 29, 01:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?$1.30Dec 29, 01:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?$1.70Dec 29, 01:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?$1.40Dec 29, 01:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?$1.50Dec 29, 01:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 10PM ET$116.00Dec 4, 02:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31?$1.34Nov 30, 03:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill LLA win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?$2.62Nov 30, 03:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill LLA win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?$2.60Oct 31, 07:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31?$1.34Oct 31, 07:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30?$1.34Oct 31, 05:54 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $5.87
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 19, 07:20 UTC
- Last active
- Dec 29, 01:21 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".