Close-Struggle
0x72863e1e35e70a7760acb64a150d819b1e59559e
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
39
Open notional
$1.5K
Total PnL
$355.97
Realised
$75.55
Win rate
60%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 39- YES
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?
861 shares @ 17.1¢·now 34.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$296.10
$148.63
- YES
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
300 shares @ 70.1¢·now 86.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$258.74
$48.55
- YES
Fed rate hike in 2026?
230 shares @ 52.0¢·now 75.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$173.65
$54.05
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?
100 shares @ 61.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$85.50
$24.50
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
100 shares @ 80.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$85.50
$5.50
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
98 shares @ 17.0¢·now 55.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$54.42
$37.75
- YES
Ostium FDV above $200M one day after launch?
457 shares @ 14.5¢·now 11.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$52.54
$-13.56
- YES
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?
203 shares @ 7.0¢·now 19.8¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$40.13
$25.98
- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
200 shares @ 24.2¢·now 20.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$40.10
$-8.30
- YES
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?
130 shares @ 21.6¢·now 28.1¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$36.47
$8.41
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.02Jul 29, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 28, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 27, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 26, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 25, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYOstium FDV above $500M one day after launch?$9.45Jul 24, 04:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYOstium FDV above $500M one day after launch?$2.49Jul 24, 04:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYOstium FDV above $200M one day after launch?$26.61Jul 24, 04:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 24, 00:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?$25.16Jul 23, 16:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 23, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYOstium FDV above $50M one day after launch?$0.28Jul 22, 05:50 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 22, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 21, 20:06 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 21, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 19, 00:17 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?$20.00Jul 18, 06:05 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 18, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 17, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 16, 00:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
60% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
13 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 13
- Avg trade size
- $25.82
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 8, 13:49 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.