Grouchy-Oval
0x728bdfdc71619740ea0287c9a26d2d76174cac0a
Wallet digest
Activity score
40/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
185
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-198.71
Realised
$0.52
Win rate
25%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 185- YES
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 12?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 11, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?
357 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on March 15?
275 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 41°F or below on January 13?
200 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 90-99 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?
200 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C or higher on June 17?
111 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 28?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on July 19?$1.03Jul 19, 14:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 19?$1.03Jul 19, 14:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 19?$0.64Jul 19, 14:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on July 19?$0.59Jul 19, 13:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on July 19?$1.02Jul 19, 13:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 22°C on July 19?$1.02Jul 19, 13:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on July 19?$1.02Jul 19, 12:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 19?$1.01Jul 19, 12:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on July 19?$1.03Jul 19, 11:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 19?$1.56Jul 19, 10:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 19?$1.02Jul 19, 10:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on July 19?$1.03Jul 19, 08:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on July 18?$1.77Jul 18, 18:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 18?$1.61Jul 18, 18:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 18?$1.51Jul 18, 18:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on July 18?$1.02Jul 18, 17:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 18?$0.85Jul 18, 14:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on July 18?$1.23Jul 18, 13:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 18?$1.02Jul 18, 13:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 18?$1.01Jul 18, 13:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
25% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $1.16
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 5, 12:28 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 19, 14:25 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.