Terrific-Failure
0x72eea0a513ff80982e14fee5f9a66c0ff21d976c
Wallet digest
Activity score
54/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
10
Open notional
$3.67
Total PnL
$-2.48
Realised
$-1.32
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Elise Stefanik confirmed as UN ambassador?
4 shares @ 4.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$3.67
$3.49
- NO
Will Marco Rubio be a member of the Trump administration?
53 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.12
- YES
Will the Commanders win Super Bowl 2025?
50 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 9, 2025$0.00
$-0.55
- YES
Will the Democratic candidate win Arizona by 4.0% or more?
22 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-0.24
- YES
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup?
19 shares @ 4.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2025$0.00
$-0.78
- YES
Will AC Milan win the UEFA Champions League?
16 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2025$0.00
$-0.28
- YES
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals?
14 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2025$0.00
$-0.14
- YES
Will someone else be inaugurated?
9 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2025$0.00
$-0.23
- YES
Will the Broncos win the AFC Championship?
8 shares @ 12.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 26, 2025$0.00
$-1.08
- NO
Will Trump win Mississippi by 20+ points?
3 shares @ 7.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-0.23
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Marco Rubio be a member of the Trump administration? $1.12Jan 19, 01:04 UTC
- REDEEMFed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after December 2024 meeting?$0.00Jan 13, 19:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Harris win Maine by 5+ points?$0.00Jan 13, 19:01 UTC
- REDEEMGOP wins popular vote by 1-2%?$0.00Jan 13, 18:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Democratic candidate win Arizona by 4.0% or more?$0.00Jan 13, 18:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill Fed cut interest rates 5 times in 2024?$0.00Jan 13, 18:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Democratic candidate win Nevada by 0%-1.0%? $0.00Jan 13, 17:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Broncos win the AFC Championship?$0.00Jan 13, 17:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Democratic candidate win Michigan by 0%-1.0%?$0.00Jan 13, 17:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Broncos win the AFC Championship?$1.08Dec 20, 01:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill AC Milan win the UEFA Champions League?$0.28Dec 14, 11:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Fed cut interest rates 5 times in 2024?$0.25Dec 9, 19:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after December 2024 meeting?$0.24Dec 3, 20:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYGOP wins popular vote by 1-2%?$0.28Nov 30, 20:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup?$0.78Nov 28, 07:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Commanders win Super Bowl 2025?$0.55Nov 28, 07:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYElise Stefanik confirmed as UN ambassador?$0.18Nov 26, 08:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill someone else be inaugurated?$0.23Nov 26, 08:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Fed cut interest rates 5 times in 2024?$0.27Nov 26, 08:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals?$0.14Nov 26, 08:04 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
17 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 66/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 17
- Avg trade size
- $0.37
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 22, 23:52 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 19, 01:04 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.