Unsteady-Efficiency
0x731226ef5a94b1b2bcd980c8c32dd8a7040792f7
Wallet digest
Activity score
53/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-11.7K
Realised
$19.72
Win rate
56%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on April 6?
14913 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 6, 2026$0.00
$-34.99
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on March 27?
13919 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-19.99
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET
13700 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2026$0.00
$-125.57
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET
12300 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2026$0.00
$-115.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 1?
4750 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-4.75
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET
3497 shares @ 6.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 27, 2026$0.00
$-234.39
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET
2998 shares @ 10.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-309.82
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET
2276 shares @ 5.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-123.86
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET
2067 shares @ 8.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$0.00
$-167.54
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on May 16?
2045 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-7.08
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET$0.00Jul 21, 14:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET$5.23Jul 21, 13:47 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET$0.00Jul 21, 13:46 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET$46.32Jul 21, 13:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET$5.28Jul 21, 13:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET$10.35Jul 21, 13:26 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET$30.76Jul 21, 12:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET$20.64Jul 21, 12:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET$10.34Jul 21, 11:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET$10.42Jul 21, 11:33 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET$0.00Jul 21, 11:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET$10.36Jul 21, 11:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET$10.36Jul 21, 10:57 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET$0.00Jul 20, 15:24 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET$20.00Jul 20, 14:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET$10.35Jul 20, 13:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET$5.30Jul 20, 13:37 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET$0.00Jul 20, 12:33 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET$1.30Jul 20, 12:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET$1.02Jul 20, 12:20 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
37/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
56% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $9.37
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 13, 14:59 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 14:02 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.