Lively-Cormorant
0x73283f2729b8c3d7279a8d17a0065b797ea0dbff
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.1K
Realised
$64.33
Win rate
70%
47 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 30?
1740 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-17.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 30?
1700 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-17.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 30?
1694 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-16.94
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 30?
1005 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.90
- YES
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 30?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C or higher on June 27?
609 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$0.00
$-6.04
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 6?
510 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$0.00
$-3.64
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 28?
444 shares @ 8.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-38.93
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 29?
443 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026$0.00
$-39.93
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 28?
420 shares @ 27.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-116.60
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on July 24?$1.04Jul 23, 03:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 24?$1.01Jul 23, 03:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on July 24?$1.04Jul 23, 03:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on July 24?$1.03Jul 23, 03:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on July 23?$0.94Jul 23, 02:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 23?$1.10Jul 23, 02:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on July 23?$0.30Jul 23, 02:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 24?$1.88Jul 23, 02:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on July 23?$1.37Jul 23, 02:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on July 24?$2.06Jul 23, 02:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on July 23?$1.01Jul 23, 02:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on July 23?$1.43Jul 23, 02:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on July 23?$1.49Jul 23, 02:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on July 24?$2.06Jul 23, 01:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 23?$0.94Jul 23, 01:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 24?$1.95Jul 23, 01:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 23?$0.73Jul 23, 01:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on July 24?$2.08Jul 23, 01:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on July 23?$0.29Jul 23, 01:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 24?$0.98Jul 23, 01:46 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
75/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
70% win rate over 47 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 23/100.
47 closed markets, 70% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $1.27
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 22, 20:34 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 03:36 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 47 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.