Wallet profile

United-Government

0x7332e12a12759c3e9a35aa76e5baefdbe16be031

activity 26/100

Wallet digest

Activity score

26/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

14

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-4.1K

Realised

$-52.04

Win rate

29%

7 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 14

Recent activity

  • REFERRAL_REWARD$41.66Jul 7, 00:51 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$113.51Jul 6, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$115.10Jul 5, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$129.50Jul 4, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$79.89Jul 3, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$71.31Jul 2, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$68.34Jul 1, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$76.26Jun 30, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$66.18Jun 29, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$80.42Jun 28, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$77.74Jun 27, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$78.27Jun 26, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$62.35Jun 25, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$92.15Jun 24, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$51.04Jun 23, 14:57 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$125.45Jun 22, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$96.85Jun 21, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$154.77Jun 20, 00:37 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$64.15Jun 19, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$37.92Jun 18, 00:35 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

34/100
read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Thin resolved sample

Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

29% win rate over 7 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

0/100
no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal
missing

No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.

Resolved-only track record
review

7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage
missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk
missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity
missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation
missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution
missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity0 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence23 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry71 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk40 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time)
0
Avg trade size
$0.00
Top category
—
Category concentration
0%
First seen
May 18, 00:35 UTC
Last active
Jul 7, 00:51 UTC
Win rate sample
7 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

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updated 17:18:26 UTC·src:Polymarket Data