Wallet digest

active

Activity score

49/100

Performance: thin sample

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-26.9K

Realised

$0.00

Win rate

n/a

too few closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET
1191 shares @ 89.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026
$0.00
$-1.1K
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET
1000 shares @ 43.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026
$0.00
$-429.92
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET
983 shares @ 54.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 25, 2026
$0.00
$-531.14
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET
949 shares @ 14.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 3, 2026
$0.00
$-138.80
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET
900 shares @ 26.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 26, 2026
$0.00
$-239.96
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET
900 shares @ 41.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 26, 2026
$0.00
$-374.94
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET
842 shares @ 54.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 25, 2026
$0.00
$-457.20
YES
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?
800 shares @ 2.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026
$0.00
$-23.20
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET
700 shares @ 57.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 5, 2026
$0.00
$-399.97
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET
700 shares @ 39.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026
$0.00
$-273.69

Recent activity

REFERRAL_REWARD$2.05Jun 22, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$2.78Jun 21, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$2.14Jun 15, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$7.48Jun 14, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$2.84Jun 1, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$4.75May 31, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$13.70May 26, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$5.68May 25, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$9.54May 24, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.24May 21, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.29May 20, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$8.37May 19, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$9.21May 18, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$43.80May 17, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$5.64May 16, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$5.53May 11, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$2.05May 10, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$10.02May 9, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$7.73May 7, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$4.10May 6, 00:35 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

0/100

read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

No resolved edge sample

Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.

Elevated mirror risk

Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Blocked

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.

Wallet signal

pass

24 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.

Resolved-only track record

block

Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity35 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence0 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry73 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk50 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 24
Avg trade size: $15.93
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: May 4, 15:24 UTC
Last active: Jun 22, 00:35 UTC
Win rate sample: 0 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 22:41:59 UTC·src:Polymarket Data