Knowing-Buy
0x7416da0600c213c7b0b7dbd4dfe7a4f3ec73082b
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
155
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-488.56
Realised
$9.66
Win rate
67%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 155- YES
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on May 1?
4550 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$0.00
$-15.99
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 12°C on May 3?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 38°C on April 30?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on May 8?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 8, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on May 3?
1504 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?
1500 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 6, 2026$0.00
$-1.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 30?
1500 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 30?
1500 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C or higher on May 3?
1012 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on April 29?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on June 13?$1.05Jun 13, 03:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$2.07Jun 9, 20:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$2.07Jun 9, 20:30 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET$2.38Jun 9, 20:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET$2.07Jun 9, 20:10 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$2.63Jun 9, 20:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$2.07Jun 9, 20:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET$2.07Jun 9, 19:20 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET$2.57Jun 9, 19:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET$2.07Jun 9, 19:15 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET$0.01Jun 9, 19:10 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET$2.48Jun 9, 19:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET$2.06Jun 9, 19:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET$2.06Jun 9, 18:55 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET$2.82Jun 9, 18:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET$2.07Jun 9, 18:00 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET$0.01Jun 9, 15:22 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET$2.44Jun 9, 15:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET$2.07Jun 9, 15:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET$2.07Jun 9, 14:50 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
31/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $2.07
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 6, 19:31 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 13, 03:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.