Vibrant-Den
0x741a7d9e3a23eb976127bfed02b1e2cec1862d91
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
122
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-4.1K
Realised
$333.46
Win rate
71%
21 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 122- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 10PM ET
5837 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 9, 2026$0.00
$-95.42
- YES
Trump out as President by March 31?
4257 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-119.19
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?
3477 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-39.09
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025?
3097 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026$0.00
$-36.58
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET
2861 shares @ 8.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 9, 2026$0.00
$-239.34
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025?
1905 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026$0.00
$-36.13
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET
1300 shares @ 22.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 9, 2026$0.00
$-294.93
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET
1037 shares @ 22.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 9, 2026$0.00
$-228.34
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET
1025 shares @ 10.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 9, 2026$0.00
$-107.73
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET
965 shares @ 35.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 9, 2026$0.00
$-337.70
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYSpread: England (-1.5)$3.37Jun 17, 19:50 UTC
- REDEEMKorea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5$3.38Jun 12, 04:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYKorea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5$1.37Jun 11, 22:08 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump out as President before 2027?$0.53Jun 11, 22:07 UTC
- TRADESELLChina x Taiwan military clash before 2027?$0.57Jun 11, 22:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March?$4.18Mar 3, 14:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March?$0.09Mar 3, 14:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March?$3.91Mar 3, 14:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March?$1.36Mar 3, 13:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March?$2.83Mar 3, 13:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March?$2.10Mar 3, 11:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March?$1.10Mar 3, 10:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March?$2.20Mar 3, 10:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March?$1.15Mar 3, 09:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March?$2.30Mar 3, 09:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March?$2.40Mar 3, 09:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March?$2.64Mar 3, 09:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March?$2.50Mar 3, 09:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March?$5.00Mar 3, 09:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March?$2.60Mar 3, 08:57 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
45/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
71% win rate over 21 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
21 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $18.30
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 14, 22:01 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 17, 19:50 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 21 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.