Wary-Confirmation
0x744234bf52b9872ed211e95b530f3a00f9dd470c
Wallet digest
Activity score
82/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
46
Open notional
$13.68
Total PnL
$-52.04
Realised
$1.68
Win rate
100%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 46- YES
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
122 shares @ 4.1¢·now 5.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$6.04
$1.04
- YES
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
46 shares @ 10.9¢·now 11.8¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$5.39
$0.39
- YES
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
3 shares @ 33.0¢·now 64.5¢·exp May 15, 2026$1.95
$0.95
- YES
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
33 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.9¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.30
$-0.70
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET
93 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 3, 2026$0.00
$-0.93
- YES
Will Trump say "Transgender" during events with Xi Jinping?
49 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Trump say "Delcy" or "Rodriguez" this week? (April 5)
17 shares @ 5.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 5, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Trump say "Caravan" this week? (April 5)
17 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 5, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET
16 shares @ 8.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 2, 2026$0.00
$-1.35
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?
16 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$5.13Jun 11, 12:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$5.14Jun 11, 12:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?$1.00Jun 11, 12:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$1.04Jun 11, 12:37 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET$1.01May 14, 16:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping?$1.04May 14, 13:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "TikTok" during events with Xi Jinping?$1.04May 14, 13:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "North Korea" or "Kim Jong Un" during events with Xi Jinping?$1.04May 14, 13:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "IQ" during events with Xi Jinping?$1.04May 14, 13:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Transgender" during events with Xi Jinping?$1.04May 14, 13:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET$1.00Apr 11, 17:54 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET$1.20Apr 11, 17:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET$1.00Apr 11, 17:32 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET$1.05Apr 10, 04:23 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET$1.01Apr 10, 04:16 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET$1.54Apr 10, 04:16 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET$1.60Apr 10, 04:16 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET$2.10Apr 10, 04:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET$1.00Apr 10, 04:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET$1.00Apr 10, 04:04 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $1.60
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 3, 03:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 11, 12:53 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.