Illustrious-Dinner
0x7449904c4f9521c56f3ae6b40f5f6fe42d98c05e
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
148
Open notional
$344.41
Total PnL
$-843.50
Realised
$-843.40
Win rate
1%
143 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 148- NO
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
6 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$6.35
$-0.00
- NO
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election?
6 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.9¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$5.81
$-0.00
- NO
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
5 shares @ 99.4¢·now 99.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.24
$-0.01
- NO
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
5 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.21
$-0.00
- NO
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election?
5 shares @ 99.1¢·now 99.1¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$4.94
$-0.00
- NO
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
5 shares @ 99.6¢·now 99.6¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$4.94
$-0.00
- NO
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
5 shares @ 99.7¢·now 99.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$4.80
$-0.00
- NO
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
5 shares @ 99.8¢·now 99.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$4.75
$-0.00
- NO
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election?
5 shares @ 99.8¢·now 99.8¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$4.70
$-0.00
- NO
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
5 shares @ 99.6¢·now 99.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.63
$-0.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election?$2.21Jul 23, 10:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$2.08Jul 23, 10:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$590.62Jul 23, 10:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election?$1.99Jul 23, 10:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$1.19Jul 23, 10:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Grigor Dimitrov win the 2026 Men's US Open?$1.34Jul 23, 10:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$592.84Jul 23, 10:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia before 2027?$1.98Jul 23, 10:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$1.31Jul 23, 10:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$600.49Jul 23, 10:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$1.07Jul 23, 10:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$601.25Jul 23, 10:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$1.99Jul 23, 09:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$2.32Jul 23, 09:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$1.61Jul 23, 09:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Parti conservateur du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?$543.84Jul 23, 09:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Cristiano Ronaldo win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$1.60Jul 23, 09:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Parti conservateur du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?$544.49Jul 23, 09:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?$2.06Jul 23, 09:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?$2.35Jul 23, 09:40 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
51/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
1% win rate over 143 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
143 closed markets, 1% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $116.60
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 23, 09:01 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 10:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 143 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.