Bogus-Councilperson
0x74af5d5fe5c14ae295ec0cd8d25e2c14608052b2
Wallet digest
Activity score
40/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-8.8K
Realised
$-198.30
Win rate
30%
27 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be between 80-81°F on August 14?
600 shares @ 26.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 14, 2025$0.00
$-159.64
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be between 70-71°F on July 20?
590 shares @ 33.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2025$0.00
$-196.32
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be between 68-69°F on July 20?
590 shares @ 17.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2025$0.00
$-101.20
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 65°F or below on July 20?
590 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2025$0.00
$-0.54
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on July 20?
580 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2025$0.00
$-6.20
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be between 75-76°F on August 16?
565 shares @ 12.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 16, 2025$0.00
$-69.36
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be between 77-78°F on August 16?
565 shares @ 30.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 16, 2025$0.00
$-173.54
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be between 85-86°F on July 18?
564 shares @ 41.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 18, 2025$0.00
$-232.11
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 69°F or below on July 19?
563 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2025$0.00
$-1.35
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be between 70-71°F on August 7?
538 shares @ 39.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 7, 2025$0.00
$-211.15
Recent activity
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 1PM ET$2.18Jan 2, 20:28 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 2PM ET$5.25Jan 2, 20:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 2PM ET$5.00Jan 2, 19:47 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 12AM ET$1.27Jan 2, 19:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 7°C on December 24?$10.00Jan 2, 19:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 1PM ET$1.00Jan 2, 18:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 1PM ET$1.00Jan 2, 18:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 12PM ET$1.00Jan 2, 17:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 12AM ET$1.00Dec 23, 05:39 UTC
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in London on December 24?$0.00Dec 23, 05:33 UTC
- SPLITWill the highest temperature in London be 7°C on December 24?$10.00Dec 23, 05:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 11°C on December 21?$200.00Dec 23, 05:27 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - December 21, 1AM ET$1.40Dec 21, 06:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - December 21, 1AM ET$1.00Dec 21, 06:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 10°C on December 20?$200.00Dec 21, 06:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 8°C on December 21?$0.20Dec 20, 07:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 7°C or below on December 21?$0.20Dec 20, 07:52 UTC
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in London on December 21?$0.00Dec 20, 07:52 UTC
- SPLITWill the highest temperature in London be 10°C on December 21?$200.00Dec 20, 07:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 12°C or higher on December 19?$200.00Dec 20, 07:49 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
30% win rate over 27 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
22 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 23/100.
27 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 22
- Avg trade size
- $1.12
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 8, 07:38 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 2, 20:28 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 27 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.