Large-Promise
0x74baa5ff4f172054feba0b752e16ea4d1997dbc7
Wallet digest
Activity score
37/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
21
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.5K
Realised
$-119.87
Win rate
17%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting?
4975 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2025$0.00
$-79.99
- YES
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people?
3878 shares @ 3.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-122.92
- YES
Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people?
3592 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-15.00
- YES
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people?
3385 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-84.46
- YES
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people?
3023 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025?
1932 shares @ 7.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-144.49
- YES
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people?
1761 shares @ 5.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-104.57
- YES
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people?
1674 shares @ 3.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-60.00
- YES
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people?
1501 shares @ 3.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
1500 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$0.00
$-31.81
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people?$20.00Nov 8, 12:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people?$2.82Oct 8, 17:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people?$0.31Oct 7, 04:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people?$0.31Oct 4, 10:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people?$0.50Oct 4, 10:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people?$0.09Oct 4, 10:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people?$0.20Oct 4, 10:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people?$50.00Sep 27, 00:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people?$3.80Sep 27, 00:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people?$0.77Sep 27, 00:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people?$5.24Sep 27, 00:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?$75.00Sep 24, 17:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?$50.00Sep 24, 17:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?$35.00Sep 24, 17:36 UTC
- REDEEMFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?$0.00Sep 24, 17:33 UTC
- TRADESELLFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?$89.48Sep 14, 20:50 UTC
- TRADESELLFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?$195.03Sep 9, 23:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?$50.00Sep 9, 12:55 UTC
- TRADESELLFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?$101.00Sep 6, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people?$52.93Aug 4, 00:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $28.94
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 8, 23:38 UTC
- Last active
- Nov 8, 12:38 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.