Weekly-Convection
0x74e0c48ac82a239958dc4c0922c05b631a28af4b
Wallet digest
Activity score
44/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
13
Open notional
$24.62
Total PnL
$-134.10
Realised
$-3.97
Win rate
0%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- YES
Will Arsenal FC vs. Manchester City end in a draw?
34 shares @ 29.0¢·now 28.5¢·exp Aug 16, 2026$9.83
$-0.17
- ARSENAL FC
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)
42 shares @ 16.0¢·now 15.0¢·exp Aug 16, 2026$6.23
$-0.42
- YES
Will FC Basel 1893 vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw?
29 shares @ 17.0¢·now 15.0¢·exp Aug 16, 2026$4.41
$-0.59
- YES
Will Schalke 04 vs. Real Madrid end in a draw?
27 shares @ 16.0¢·now 15.5¢·exp Aug 16, 2026$4.15
$-0.13
- YES
Will Trump’s remarks not air?
222 shares @ 4.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Trump say "Booming" during remarks in Georgia?
63 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$0.00
$-32.26
- YES
Will Olympique Lyonnais vs. AC Sparta Praha end in a draw?
53 shares @ 19.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- NO
Will Avengers: Doomsday Trailer get between 35 and 40 million views on Day 1?
40 shares @ 41.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 21, 2026$0.00
$-16.74
- YES
Will Avengers: Doomsday Trailer get between 40 and 45 million views on Day 1?
40 shares @ 38.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 21, 2026$0.00
$-15.52
- YES
Will Shopify Rebellion Black Win North America ACE Stage 3
30 shares @ 61.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-18.09
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Schalke 04 vs. Real Madrid end in a draw?$4.46Aug 16, 04:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill FC Basel 1893 vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw?$5.21Aug 16, 04:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)$6.93Aug 16, 04:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Arsenal FC vs. Manchester City end in a draw?$10.35Aug 16, 04:33 UTC
- REWARD$1.09Aug 16, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLBulbasaur Price Up/Down on August 31?$9.15Aug 15, 05:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 17-August 23?$7.55Aug 15, 05:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYBulbasaur Price Up/Down on August 31?$12.40Aug 15, 05:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 17-August 23?$11.20Aug 15, 05:24 UTC
- TRADESELLCharizard ex Price Up/Down on August 31?$9.70Aug 15, 05:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYCharizard ex Price Up/Down on August 31?$11.60Aug 15, 05:09 UTC
- REWARD$1.92Aug 15, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Coventry City win on 2026-08-14? AND Will ESTAC Troyes win on 2026-08-14? AND Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-08-15? AND Will Crystal Palace win on 2026-08-15?$2.00Aug 14, 08:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Olympique Marseille vs. Atletico Madrid end in a draw?$5.19Aug 14, 08:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1490?$31.54Aug 14, 05:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1490?$12.80Aug 14, 05:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1490?$6.50Aug 14, 05:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1490?$13.00Aug 14, 05:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Google be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?$8.21Aug 14, 05:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gen.G Win the Shortest Game in LCK 2026 Rounds 3-4?$10.20Aug 14, 05:24 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
23/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 58/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $8.82
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 8, 05:03 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 16, 04:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.