Reflecting-Complex
0x74ea5c43eedc4e9f7c0a56fc2c631a442358b265
Wallet digest
Activity score
51/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-6.1K
Realised
$16.24
Win rate
54%
35 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 15?
10536 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-10.54
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 15?
10370 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-10.37
- YES
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Argentina?
10000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 54°F or higher on March 15?
9630 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 56°F or higher on March 17?
7894 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2026$0.00
$-70.49
- YES
Exact Score: Any Other Score?
4000 shares @ 5.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.00
$-208.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 74°F or higher on March 17?
3942 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2026$0.00
$-33.62
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 62°F or higher on March 16?
2361 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 16, 2026$0.00
$-21.32
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 36°F or higher on March 16?
2035 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 16, 2026$0.00
$-38.02
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 32°F or higher on March 17?
1651 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2026$0.00
$-18.01
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.15Jul 21, 20:08 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$1.18Jul 20, 00:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$2.0KJul 19, 21:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5$213.57Jul 19, 16:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$38.50Jul 19, 16:47 UTC
- YIELD$0.16Jul 19, 00:16 UTC
- REDEEMExact Score: Any Other Score?$999.99Jul 18, 23:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Argentina?$104.95Jul 18, 22:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Any Other Score?$146.02Jul 18, 13:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYAC Goianiense vs. Athletic Club: Athletic Club O/U 0.5$124.38Jul 18, 13:56 UTC
- YIELD$0.16Jul 18, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.16Jul 17, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.16Jul 16, 00:18 UTC
- REDEEMEngland vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5$500.00Jul 15, 21:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?$224.95Jul 15, 01:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYEngland vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5$203.47Jul 15, 01:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Any Other Score?$217.86Jul 15, 01:24 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jul 15, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 14, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYCeará SC vs. Athletic Club: Athletic Club 1st Half O/U 0.5$31.00Jul 13, 19:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
58/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
54% win rate over 35 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
25 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
35 closed markets, 54% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 25
- Avg trade size
- $160.40
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 3, 23:28 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 20:08 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 35 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.