Hard-Apron
0x74f137b5f927fb582bf039d7fd5f12a73e6b3d6a
Wallet digest
Activity score
79/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
36
Open notional
$555.72
Total PnL
$-92.82
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 36- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on July 29?
556 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$555.72
$0.28
- YES
Will the price of Solana be above $240 on October 15?
1000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 15, 2025$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Ethereum all time high by October 31?
50 shares @ 7.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 1, 2025$0.00
$-3.75
- YES
Will Liechtenstein vs. Wales end in a draw?
24 shares @ 4.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 15, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Norway vs. Estonia end in a draw?
23 shares @ 4.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 13, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- GEEKAY
LoL: Geekay vs Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition (BO5)
15 shares @ 80.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 16, 2025$0.00
$-12.00
- NO
Will the government shutdown end November 13?
15 shares @ 67.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 21, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-11-23?
13 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Albania win on 2025-11-16?
9 shares @ 11.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 16, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-11-22?
9 shares @ 23.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 22, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on July 29?$555.48Jul 28, 02:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on July 26?$555.00Jul 26, 16:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on July 26?$554.48Jul 24, 04:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on July 22?$555.00Jul 22, 16:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on July 22?$554.48Jul 20, 07:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be above $120 on July 16?$47.81Jul 16, 16:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be above $110 on July 16?$207.00Jul 16, 16:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be above $40 on July 16?$56.75Jul 16, 16:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,200 on July 16?$123.00Jul 16, 16:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on July 15?$112.00Jul 15, 16:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be above $110 on July 16?$206.81Jul 14, 07:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be above $120 on July 16?$47.77Jul 14, 07:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be above $40 on July 16?$56.70Jul 14, 07:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on July 15?$111.90Jul 14, 07:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,200 on July 16?$122.89Jul 14, 07:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on July 10?$444.00Jul 10, 16:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,200 on July 10?$110.00Jul 10, 16:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on July 10?$443.59Jul 8, 06:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,200 on July 10?$109.90Jul 8, 06:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on July 7?$268.50Jul 7, 16:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 25
- Avg trade size
- $220.58
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 11, 04:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 02:42 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.