Wallet digest

active

Activity score

33/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-11.5K

Realised

$-551.41

Win rate

10%

39 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET
801 shares @ 37.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 24, 2026
$0.00
$-296.67
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET
709 shares @ 49.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 25, 2026
$0.00
$-349.22
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 10PM ET
659 shares @ 34.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 27, 2026
$0.00
$-223.78
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET
599 shares @ 8.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 24, 2026
$0.00
$-48.93
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - December 22, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET
544 shares @ 67.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 22, 2025
$0.00
$-367.86
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET
541 shares @ 18.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 25, 2026
$0.00
$-99.17
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET
517 shares @ 19.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 24, 2026
$0.00
$-99.42
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - December 30, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET
510 shares @ 73.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025
$0.00
$-375.02
UP
XRP Up or Down - January 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET
499 shares @ 79.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 18, 2026
$0.00
$-398.56
T1
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner
475 shares @ 63.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 25, 2026
$0.00
$-300.00

Recent activity

REFERRAL_REWARD$12.05May 19, 00:35 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET$4.25May 3, 15:51 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET$4.41May 3, 15:49 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET$3.07May 2, 13:37 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$3.19Apr 30, 05:30 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$21.68Apr 28, 00:30 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$26.55Apr 27, 00:30 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$16.19Apr 26, 00:30 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$12.90Apr 25, 00:30 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$32.20Apr 24, 00:30 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$24.32Apr 22, 00:30 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$21.38Apr 21, 00:30 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$6.86Apr 20, 00:30 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$35.84Apr 19, 00:30 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$11.12Apr 19, 00:30 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$5.53Apr 18, 00:30 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$11.12Apr 18, 00:30 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$8.14Apr 17, 00:30 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$2.40Apr 16, 00:30 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$10.41Apr 14, 00:30 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

59/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

10% win rate over 39 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

23 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 31/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

39 closed markets, 10% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity35 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry43 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk31 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 23
Avg trade size: $24.45
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jan 27, 10:28 UTC
Last active: May 19, 00:35 UTC
Win rate sample: 39 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 06:57:26 UTC·src:Polymarket Data