Wallet digest

active

Activity score

93/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$11.4K

Total PnL

$-657.96

Realised

$68.88

Win rate

67%

3 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

NO
Will Solana dip to $70 in July?
10510 shares @ 72.1¢·now 69.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026
$7.3K
$-323.70
NO
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on July 25?
1474 shares @ 97.3¢·now 99.2¢·exp Jul 26, 2026
$1.5K
$28.00
NO
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 July 20-26?
1400 shares @ 97.6¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 27, 2026
$1.4K
$29.10
NO
Will Solana reach $90 in July?
813 shares @ 90.0¢·now 98.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026
$797.30
$65.46
NO
Will Solana reach $80 in July?
427 shares @ 81.7¢·now 86.6¢·exp Aug 1, 2026
$369.69
$21.08
YES
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026?
895 shares @ 65.0¢·now 8.8¢·exp Jan 1, 2027
$78.73
$-503.22
TAMPA BAY RAYS
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
122 shares @ 58.3¢·now 22.7¢·exp May 23, 2026
$27.75
$-43.56

Recent activity

TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $65,000 on July 25?$49.08Jul 25, 15:02 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 7AM ET$46.40Jul 25, 12:11 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 7AM ET$19.40Jul 25, 12:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 7AM ET$26.53Jul 25, 12:00 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET$2.49Jul 25, 11:35 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET$2.44Jul 25, 11:35 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $66,000 on July 25?$1.4KJul 25, 11:32 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET$4.4KJul 25, 10:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET$2.3KJul 25, 10:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET$3.35Jul 25, 10:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET$2.0KJul 25, 10:00 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Solana reach $80 in July?$323.06Jul 25, 09:03 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 3AM ET$24.03Jul 25, 08:14 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 3AM ET$6.93Jul 25, 08:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 3AM ET$16.86Jul 25, 08:00 UTC
REDEEMBNB Up or Down - July 25, 2AM ET$20.00Jul 25, 07:12 UTC
TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down - July 25, 2AM ET$19.81Jul 25, 07:00 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $65,000 on July 25?$30.16Jul 25, 05:44 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $65,000 on July 25?$16.36Jul 25, 05:44 UTC
REDEEMSolana Up or Down - July 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET$288.00Jul 25, 05:05 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

13/100

read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

Thin resolved sample

Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.

High mirror risk

Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.

Late-entry profile

Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

67% win rate over 3 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Blocked

0/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.

Wallet signal

block

Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.

Resolved-only track record

review

3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

Sample

low

1 ledger trades

Top market concentration

Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?

$15.0K · 100% of recorded whale volume

Recorded market concentration

Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?100% of recorded volume$15.0K

Profile dimensions

Activity67 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence10 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry29 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk79 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 30
Avg trade size: $710.22
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 24, 23:15 UTC
Last active: Jul 25, 15:02 UTC
Win rate sample: 3 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 15:25:52 UTC·src:Polymarket Data