Careless-Insight
0x753bb25023530aa3a63a7737c322f06516edf06c
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
33
Open notional
$26.31
Total PnL
$-19.68
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 33- YES
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
20 shares @ 5.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$20.20
$19.20
- YES
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?
33 shares @ 15.0¢·now 13.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.60
$-0.40
- YES
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 2m barrels per day in 2026?
23 shares @ 4.3¢·now 3.5¢·exp Feb 28, 2027$0.80
$-0.20
- YES
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
10 shares @ 21.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.71
$-1.29
- YES
Will Grok 4.20 be released on February 3, 2026?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 14, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
200 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?
110 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
83 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 5?
75 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 5, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?
67 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?$0.00Apr 28, 00:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?$0.00Apr 28, 00:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Venezuelan crude oil production reach 2m barrels per day in 2026?$1.00Mar 8, 19:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of March?$0.00Mar 8, 19:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31?$1.00Mar 8, 19:05 UTC
- TRADEBUY Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?$1.00Mar 8, 19:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?$6.00Mar 8, 19:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the April meeting?$1.00Mar 7, 23:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?$1.00Mar 7, 23:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?$1.00Mar 7, 23:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bahrain strike Iran by March 31?$1.00Mar 6, 21:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Germany strike Iran by March 31?$1.00Mar 6, 21:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Canada strike Iran by March 31?$1.00Mar 6, 21:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?$1.00Mar 6, 02:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?$1.00Mar 6, 02:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of March?$11.00Mar 6, 02:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS forces enter Iran by March 7?$1.00Mar 6, 02:02 UTC
- REDEEMKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?$11.11Mar 5, 23:05 UTC
- REDEEMKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?$18.75Mar 5, 23:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill the US strike another country first?$0.00Mar 2, 23:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 62/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $1.57
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 4, 00:56 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 28, 00:52 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.