Fresh-Proof
0x754b16a1065ddbd66f147d6125ffed92a8f7a66e
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-10.1K
Realised
$2.2K
Win rate
73%
116 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?
86392 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 17, 2026$0.00
$-89.16
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?
52643 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 17, 2026$0.00
$-60.49
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 46°F or higher on February 15?
45000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 15, 2026$0.00
$-45.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?
42746 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 17, 2026$0.00
$-44.93
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on February 16?
25822 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 16, 2026$0.00
$-54.74
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on February 16?
24988 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 16, 2026$0.00
$-24.99
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on February 16?
24052 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 16, 2026$0.00
$-53.49
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?
19980 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 17, 2026$0.00
$-19.98
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 52°F or higher on February 16?
16650 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 16, 2026$0.00
$-49.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 36°C or higher on February 16?
15978 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 16, 2026$0.00
$-49.68
Recent activity
- REFERRAL_REWARD$27.55Jul 11, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$20.94Jul 10, 00:35 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$31.60Jul 9, 21:09 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$32.49Jul 9, 00:48 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$67.44Jul 8, 00:55 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$158.01Jul 7, 00:51 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$152.27Jul 6, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$105.49Jul 5, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$199.91Jul 4, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$131.47Jul 3, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$118.31Jul 2, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$106.19Jul 1, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$185.09Jun 30, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$143.61Jun 29, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$136.31Jun 28, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$136.30Jun 27, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$104.35Jun 26, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$150.72Jun 25, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$147.38Jun 24, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$76.90Jun 23, 14:57 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
73/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
73% win rate over 116 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
3 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.
116 closed markets, 73% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 3
- Avg trade size
- $107.16
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 8, 17:51 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 11, 00:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 116 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.