Wallet digest

active

Activity score

43/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-61.2K

Realised

$-1.8K

Win rate

33%

12 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

FURIA
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FURIA (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2
9470 shares @ 23.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 11, 2026
$0.00
$-2.2K
UNDER
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5
5711 shares @ 87.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2026
$0.00
$-5.0K
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET
4905 shares @ 97.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 23, 2026
$0.00
$-4.8K
FURIA
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A
3775 shares @ 71.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 23, 2026
$0.00
$-2.7K
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET
3393 shares @ 23.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026
$0.00
$-791.96
FURIA
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner
3024 shares @ 13.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 11, 2026
$0.00
$-398.97
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET
2327 shares @ 62.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026
$0.00
$-1.5K
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET
2119 shares @ 67.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026
$0.00
$-1.4K
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET
2043 shares @ 48.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026
$0.00
$-984.46
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET
1869 shares @ 68.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026
$0.00
$-1.3K

Recent activity

TAKER_REBATE$1.41Jul 16, 00:10 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET$199.19Jul 15, 21:32 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET$200.02Jul 15, 21:31 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET$131.24Jul 15, 21:28 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET$126.46Jul 15, 21:28 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET$120.43Jul 15, 21:23 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET$108.70Jul 15, 21:22 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET$100.56Jul 15, 21:19 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET$116.65Jul 15, 21:10 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET$101.00Jul 15, 21:06 UTC
TRADESELLWill Argentina win on 2026-07-15?$99.74Jul 15, 21:04 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Argentina win on 2026-07-15?$90.45Jul 15, 20:55 UTC
TRADESELLEngland vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$85.52Jul 15, 20:49 UTC
TRADESELLSpread: England (-1.5)$2.51Jul 15, 20:48 UTC
TRADEBUYWill England win on 2026-07-15?$15.27Jul 15, 20:19 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: England (-1.5)$10.39Jul 15, 20:19 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: England (-1.5)$36.38Jul 15, 20:18 UTC
TRADEBUYWill England win on 2026-07-15?$101.69Jul 15, 20:17 UTC
TRADESELLWill England vs. Argentina end in a draw?$58.32Jul 15, 20:16 UTC
TRADEBUYEngland vs. Argentina: O/U 0.5$103.31Jul 15, 20:15 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

38/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

33% win rate over 12 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

44 live trades, 2 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

2 ledger trades

Top market concentration

Spread: Canada (-2.5)

$11.1K · 100% of recorded whale volume

Recorded market concentration

Spread: Canada (-2.5)100% of recorded volume$11.1K

Profile dimensions

Activity59 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence40 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry73 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk46 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 44
Avg trade size: $85.62
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 9, 21:17 UTC
Last active: Jul 16, 00:10 UTC
Win rate sample: 12 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 17:35:06 UTC·src:Polymarket Data