Amazing-Pad
0x758b87dd3b6491bb122634be5d465d180a120a1c
Wallet digest
Activity score
81/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$6.0K
Total PnL
$-1.8K
Realised
$1.2K
Win rate
66%
135 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
800 shares @ 97.0¢·now 96.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$775.20
$-0.78
- NO
Will the median home value in NYC be between $636,000 and $663,000 on September 30?
740 shares @ 57.8¢·now 75.8¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$561.22
$133.44
- NO
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31?
380 shares @ 98.0¢·now 98.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$375.26
$2.92
- NO
Will Barrett Pfeiffer come in second-place on Big Brother season 28?
315 shares @ 93.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Oct 1, 2026$281.93
$-11.02
- NO
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
320 shares @ 68.8¢·now 64.5¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$206.39
$-13.80
- NO
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 43.0 and 45.9 in July?
205 shares @ 93.8¢·now 95.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$196.53
$3.71
- YES
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?
261 shares @ 75.0¢·now 58.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$151.66
$-44.38
- NO
Will Raquel Lyra win the Pernambuco Governor election?
276 shares @ 38.2¢·now 52.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$143.76
$38.08
- YES
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?
321 shares @ 41.5¢·now 43.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$139.75
$6.25
- NO
Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?
214 shares @ 63.7¢·now 60.5¢·exp Aug 7, 2026$129.35
$-6.93
Recent activity
- REDEEMCoca-Cola (KO) Q2 organic revenue (non-GAAP) growth 3.5%-5%?$20.00Jul 28, 13:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff by less than 5%?$20.00Jul 28, 12:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democratic Party win the AZ-08 House seat?$14.43Jul 28, 12:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill KT Rolster Win KeSPA Cup 2026?$0.20Jul 28, 11:01 UTC
- TRADESELLCoca-Cola (KO) Q2 global unit case volume growth <3.5%?$12.38Jul 28, 10:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democratic Party win the NC-14 House seat?$0.52Jul 28, 09:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Phil Weiser win the Colorado Governor Democratic Primary by less than 5%?$60.00Jul 28, 07:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill Melat Kiros win the CO-01 Democratic primary by less than 5%?$39.00Jul 28, 07:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill Phil Weiser win the Colorado Governor Democratic Primary by more than 15%?$40.00Jul 28, 07:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 20–25%?$2.20Jul 28, 06:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jack Grealish join Nottingham Forest?$2.80Jul 28, 04:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill GamerLegion make a roster change before August?$16.88Jul 28, 00:47 UTC
- REWARD$1.47Jul 28, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Dillon Dingler win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award?$4.65Jul 27, 22:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Dillon Dingler win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award?$9.30Jul 27, 21:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 15–20%?$10.45Jul 27, 20:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be between $1,137,000 and $1,153,000 on September 30?$5.68Jul 27, 20:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Dillon Dingler win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award?$6.51Jul 27, 19:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jordan Bardella be the next President of the National Rally in 2026?$0.44Jul 27, 19:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mike Thompson win the CA-04 House seat?$3.30Jul 27, 19:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
75/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
66% win rate over 135 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 32/100.
135 closed markets, 66% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $10.75
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 26, 07:33 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 13:29 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 135 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.