Ill-Informed-Observatory-Armrest
0x75e867aaa2b94c4d690f4f4d04e70c716f242e62
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
13
Open notional
$33.66
Total PnL
$-79.94
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- NO
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 14?
31 shares @ 64.5¢·now 64.5¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$20.00
$0.01
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 16?
28 shares @ 49.3¢·now 49.5¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$13.66
$0.06
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 11?
33 shares @ 59.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$0.00
$-19.47
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on June 22?
21 shares @ 46.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 22, 2026$0.00
$-9.73
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 29?
14 shares @ 70.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026$0.00
$-9.82
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 5?
13 shares @ 36.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$0.00
$-4.68
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 30?
12 shares @ 41.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-5.01
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 25?
9 shares @ 59.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$0.00
$-5.31
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on July 6?
9 shares @ 57.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$0.00
$-5.17
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 28?
8 shares @ 62.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-4.96
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 16?$1.25Jul 14, 04:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 16?$2.75Jul 14, 04:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 16?$9.85Jul 14, 04:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 14?$20.34Jul 13, 23:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 13?$28.00Jul 13, 16:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 12?$29.00Jul 12, 22:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C or higher on July 12?$26.00Jul 12, 18:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 12?$29.00Jul 12, 16:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 13?$20.17Jul 12, 04:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 10?$23.00Jul 11, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 11?$19.87Jul 10, 23:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C or higher on July 12?$19.84Jul 10, 13:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 12?$20.37Jul 10, 13:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on July 10?$8.00Jul 10, 12:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 12?$20.10Jul 10, 04:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 10?$4.97Jul 9, 06:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on July 10?$5.53Jul 8, 21:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 10?$5.29Jul 8, 19:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 10?$5.45Jul 8, 12:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 7?$14.00Jul 7, 16:28 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 62/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $7.73
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 2, 15:57 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 04:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.